2 SEPTEMBER 2026, KOROR, PALAU – As Pacific leaders gather in Palau for the 55th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting (PIFLM), a new spotlight report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), Limiting Overshoot, confirms that the world is already pushing past the critical 1.5°C threshold. For Small Island Developing States (SIDS), this overshoot is a present-day emergency, and the report identifies transitioning away from fossil fuels as a key strategy in mitigating this catastrophic trajectory threatening all corners of the world, and most critically, the region’s very survival.

Fossil fuel extraction is the direct architect of Pacific displacement. While Pacific nations contribute only 0.03% of global greenhouse gas emissions, the impacts of an overshoot are already locked in. As called for by 57 countries at the Santa Marta Conference, the need for international cooperation and a global binding climate mechanism to manage a just and equitable transition away from oil, gas and coal is absolute. Scientific models estimate that if global temperatures surpass 1.8°C, a return to a stable climate will be difficult and protracted.

In Tuvalu and other atoll nations, sea-level rise is transforming 1-in-100-year coastal inundation events into recurrent crises, with damages projected to exceed 110% of Tuvalu’s current GDP by 2100. With 30% of the world’s annual tuna catch sourced from Pacific waters, stock displacement threatens the region’s economic bedrock, potentially costing US$90 million annually in lost revenue. Furthermore, coastal fisheries face a catastrophic decline of up to 65% by 2050, threatening to create a food gap of 29kg of fish per person, per year. 

To confront this existential risk, Pacific nations are leveraging a unified diplomatic toolbox. In April, they launched the Tassiriki Call for a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific as the regional blueprint for survival. Today, they continue to utilize the International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion (ICJAO) to codify the legal duty of states to cooperate. These initiatives are building the necessary legal and moral arguments for a global Fossil Fuel Treaty required to govern an orderly, fair, and financed transition away from coal, oil, and gas.

Hon. Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu’s Minister of Climate Change, Adaptation, Meteorology and Geo-Hazards, and Energy, said:

“To maintain a high ambition scenario, we need urgent climate action on transitioning away from fossil fuels. This means a rapid transition away from fossil fuels and fossil fuel subsidies. There is no other way. Pacific leaders also call for a 1.5 degree line pathway in the Pacific that includes a 100% renewable energy future for the Pacific small island developing states. That's why Vanuatu and other countries made the Tassiriki Call earlier this year and I urge you to look at the details in that call.”

The Australian government, also attending the PIFLM, faces growing criticism over its continued approval of fossil fuel projects. Since taking office, the Albanese government has approved 36 new coal, oil, and gas developments. A single project—Woodside's North West Shelf extension—is projected to generate 4.3 billion tonnes of climate pollution, exceeding the combined annual emissions of all Pacific Island nations for more than two centuries.

Min. Regenvanu added: “Australia's not doing enough. Australia is a major producer of fossil fuels. We all know fossil fuels are the primary driver of the climate crisis, as I said. So the very least what a country like Australia should be doing is stopping future expansion. And it's not doing that. You need to stop expansion and you need to start transitioning away.”

Hon. Dr. Maina Talia, Minister for Home Affairs, Environment and Climate Change, Tuvalu, said:

“The overshoot report launched today really struck those who live in low lying atolls. We know for sure that climate change falls disproportionately on the Pacific countries. The costs that we have to bear in Tuvalu are incomparable to other countries that may be impacted by the climate crisis. The message is very clear from the report that we need to do more. And that's why we are hosting the Second International Conference on Transitioning away from Fossil Fuels in the Pacific next year with the whole idea not just to bring leaders across, but to demonstrate that these are the impacts that we are going through.[...] We need the political will to transition away from fossil fuels. That's my message for all the oil-producing countries and fossil fuel countries.”

H.E. Tina Stege, Climate Envoy, Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) and Regional Envoy for Oceania for COP31, said:

“This report tells us in no uncertain terms that 1.5 is the safe harbor, not just for the Pacific, but for the entire world. But with the overshoot that is now certain ahead of us, we are fighting against a very strong current that's sweeping us into very dangerous waters. And we have to do everything in our power to fight our way back to 1.5 by minimizing that overshoot and minimizing the size and the length of that overshoot. And how do we do it? We've heard it has to be through immediate and deep emissions cuts. That means we have to tackle methane as a priority, it means ending investments in fossil fuels and phasing them out and leapfrogging to renewables. [...] The 1.5 overshoot report is new and it is news, but the message that it delivers is not. Our leaders and our Pacific peoples have said time and again that 1.5 to stay alive is not a slogan, it's a lifeline. And this report is just yet another alarm bell to wake up the rest of the world.”

Pacific leaders are now carrying this climate imperative forward from the Pacific Islands Forum happening this week in Palau to a series of upcoming critical diplomatic milestones. These include the pre-COP31 in Fiji in October, where the region will solidify its stance ahead of COP31, COP31 in Turkiye, and the Second International Conference on Transitioning away from Fossil Fuels, which Tuvalu and Ireland will co-host next April in the Pacific.