COP29

At COP29, countries must uphold and advance the COP28 agreement to “transition away from fossil fuels”. It will take international cooperation to develop and implement a concrete, actionable plan to stop the expansion of fossil fuels globally and facilitate an equitable shift to renewables. 

Wealthy, high-emitting nations must lead the charge in transitioning from fossil fuels first and fastest. This means these countries need to set ambitious goals within their Nationally Determined Contributions to end fossil fuel expansion and fossil fuel phase out,  while delivering adequate climate finance and technical support to help developing countries least responsible for historic emissions to transition. 

We urge governments to support the calls for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to complement the Paris Agreement by addressing the root of the climate crisis- coal, oil and gas- and paving the way for a legally binding roadmap for the global transition and a sustainable future for all.

Wealthy countries must pay up at least $5 trillion per year from the Global North to the Global South as annualized reparatory payments against the wider climate debt being incurred. The new climate finance goal should establish at least $1 trillion per year in public grants for economically emerging countries to support cutting emissions, preparing for and adapting to climate impacts, and funding to address loss and damage from extreme weather.The exploitation of coal, oil and gas severely affects ecosystems and entire communities as it generates 86% of carbon emissions over the last decade, the main cause of climate change.

The NDC Synthesis report confirms that current progress on NDCs falls significantly short of what’s needed to limit global heating to 1.5°C as the total emissions gap between current NDC projections and what is needed to stay within 1.5°C is approximately 22.7 Gt CO₂, Meanwhile, major fossil fuel-producing countries plan to produce about 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. 

At COP28, states were called upon to contribute to global efforts to limit global heating to 1.5C, including transitioning away from fossil fuels. Updated NDCs due in 2025 are the last chance for countries to commit to action to meet the climate target set under the Paris Agreement. 

According to IISD, a third of the largest fossil-fuel-producing countries do not mention transition of the fossil fuel sector in their NDCs, while a good number have signaled the continuation or increase of fossil fuel production. 

Developed nations fall well short of their fair share of commitments to tackling the climate crisis, and would need to more than double or triple the level of ambition in NDCs to achieve even the lower range of their fair share.

1.5-aligned NDCs demand a plan for a fair phase out of fossil fuels, with the highest emitters halting expansion of fossil fuels and bearing the responsibility to transition first and fastest, while offering finance and technology transfer to support the transition in developing countries.

At COP29, parties will negotiate a new climate finance goal, the New Collective Quantified Goal, to fund the transition away from fossil fuels agreed to at COP28. The new climate finance goal must provide for new and additional funds and include dedicated just energy transition funding for a fair fossil fuel phaseout that supports fossil fuel dependent workers and communities.

Wealthy countries must pay up at least $5 trillion per year from the Global North to the Global South as annualized reparatory payments against the wider climate debt being incurred. They have the means to mobilize well over this amount for climate action at home and towards the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) by ending fossil fuel subsidies, imposing taxes on polluters and implementing wealth tax on billionaires. 

Adequate finance to support the expansion of renewable energy infrastructure and adaptation measures is critical to unlocking ambitious NDCs among developing nations, ahead of 2025 when nations are set to submit updated NDCs. Inadequate finance risks countries falling short of their NDCs, thus undermining global efforts on climate action. 

Civil Society Organisations are calling for a new climate finance target of at least $1 trillion per year in grants and grant-equivalent finance for economically emerging countries to support cutting emissions, preparing for and adapting to climate impacts, and funding to address loss and damage from extreme weather. This includes a $300 billion mitigation sub goal to support COP 28 agreements to transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. This funding is essential for inclusive just transition pathways that do not exacerbate debt for developing nations.

Discussions on a new climate finance goal have been bumpy, pitting developed and developing nations against each other, with key points of contention including the scale of funding, its sources, and access mechanisms. Additional concerns raised on climate finance are insufficient progress on equity-based commitments, the need for grant-focused financing, and dedicated loss and damage funding.

Global financial systems that prioritize debt repayment over climate obligations are worsening the climate crisis by pressuring heavily indebted developing nations to increase fossil fuel production for debt servicing. This approach perpetuates environmental degradation and economic vulnerability.

Many developed nations are stuck in a vicious cycle of debt-disaster as the disproportionate impacts of climate related disasters limit their ability to build resilience against the climate crisis and finance their development, including the shift to renewable energy. 

Debt restructuring, renegotiating the terms of existing debt or reducing debt burdens are essential for developing nations to break the cycle, free up much needed resources for adaptation and investment in sustainable energy, and enhance economic stability.

Financial institutions like the IMF must pursue alternative instruments that prioritize debt relief, sustainable finance, and investment in renewable energy rather than extending and entrenching reliance on fossil fuel infrastructure

The agreement made by governments at COP28, to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030, is set to almost triple demand for critical minerals according to IEA on the same timeline.

Without proper management, increased demand for these minerals risks a continuation of the harmful legacy of mining activities, perpetuating commodity dependence, exacerbating geopolitical tensions and posing environmental and social challenges with adverse impacts on sustainable development including on livelihoods, the environment, health, human security and human rights, more so among Indigenous Peoples.

The renewables revolution should be grounded in equity and justice in order to spur sustainable development, while minimizing harm to the environment, respecting people and enhancing prosperity in resource-rich developing countries. A FossilFuel Treaty would foster a people-centered transition ensuring the rights and interests of resource-rich communities are protected.

Carbon Capture and Storage, and other unproven technologies, are false solutions pushed by the fossil fuel industry that haven’t yet passed the test of being effective, scalable, and affordable. All of these alternatives are, in fact, dangerous distractions designed to distract us from the real debate and the real solution to the climate crisis, which is the phase-out of fossil fuels and a rapid and equitable energy transition.

Azerbaijan, a major oil and gas producer whose economy is heavily reliant on fossil fuels and that is expanding production is hosting COP29 which stands in stark contrast to the urgent need for countries to phase out fossil fuel production in line with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit. This brings into question the integrity of the COP process as it risks undermining genuine efforts at addressing the climate crisis when those who benefit from fossil fuel extraction are hosting and dominant in negotiations. 

Azerbaijani authorities have a longstanding record of severely curtailing freedom of expression and association. The government has been accused of silencing critics, restricting civil society organizations and curbing the activities of environmental activists—groups that are essential in advocating for robust climate action and holding governments accountable.

Azerbaijan hosting COP poses serious concerns that freedom of expression and assembly could be restricted, limiting the participation of key stakeholders in the climate dialogue, a situation that would weaken the ability of COP to serve as an inclusive and transparent forum for advancing global climate action.

At COP28, a record number of fossil fuel lobbyists had access to the climate talks - at least 2400 according to an analysis by Kick big Polluters Out.

Climate change and human rights are fundamentally connected with people already being killed and displaced in the millions each year. The issue is fundamentally tied to other human rights including gender, freedom of expression, the right to health and education and others. 

Any COP or any other forum that discusses climate change cannot ignore the issue of human rights. 

The world is facing unprecedented social, health, and economic challenges as the impacts of climate change further deepens historical injustices, with the least responsible nations and communities suffering the most. This extends to access to energy, food, clean water, and education. These consequences are not universally distributed – they disproportionately affect those who are the least able to mitigate them, leading to deeper social inequality and deprivation of human rights.

Fossil fuels are the lifeblood of powering conflicts and military activity worldwide as militaries are dependent on fossil fuels as an energy source. 

The global militaries’ reliance on fossil fuels creates a loop that not only drives emissions but also diverts financial resources from critical climate action. From 2013 to 2021, the wealthiest countries spent an enormous $9.45 trillion on military budgets, compared to just $243.9 billion on international climate finance.

The extraction of fossil fuels has systemic negative impacts on human security and marginalised communities ranging from ecological destruction and long-lasting health impacts to forced evictions, displacement and militarisation around extraction sites, disproportionately impacting Indigenous Peoples, land defenders and women.

While a fossil fuel phase out is urgently needed to both mitigate the climate crisis and as an important pillar for peace, there does not yet exist a binding international instrument to end the expansion of new coal, oil and gas and to ensure the transition away from fossil fuels. A Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty has the potential to be an essential climate tool for peace as it provides an international mechanism to fairly manage the global phase out of fossil fuels, enabling a just rapid transition for all states and communities.

Donald Trump’s position on climate change is clear. As former President, he pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement. He calls climate change a hoax and says he will repeal the Inflation Reduction Act and open up more lands to drilling if he becomes President again.

Trump is dangerously behind the times. People are already dying from climate change around the world. Hundreds of people just died in the U.S. alone, when hurricanes Milton and Helene raged through. Climate change is an existential threat, not a hoax, and the main source of the problem is fossil fuels.

From a policy perspective, even if he were to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, there is very little if anything he can do to derail what is already in motion as funding continues to move out the door for states, communities and households to support electrification, renewable energy and other climate friendly solutions.

Bringing back the “Drill Baby Drill” call is also out of date.  The International Energy Agency’s Net Zero scenario calls for no new fossil fuel projects if we are to keep warming to the Paris Agreement goal of  1.5C of warming. It’s also clear that the world doesn’t need any more oil, gas or coal to support an energy and low carbon economic transformation. The challenge is one of oversupply.

Other countries and jurisdictions are starting to move in the opposite direction. The Power Past Coal Alliance now has 60 national governments, 51 subnational governments and 69 global organizations as members and are hosting global dialogues to continue the wind down of coal. The Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance has 12 national governments and 4 subnational governments as core members that are working to elevate the need for a phase out in international dialogues and create a community of practice to support the transition away from oil and gas. At UN climate negotiations, the need to transition away from fossil fuels was referenced last year in the meeting text and a commitment made to accelerate the adoption of renewable energy. 

There are also 14 nations and 115 cities and subnational governments spearheading a global effort to negotiate a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to end expansion, equitably wind down existing production and accelerate a fair and just move away from oil, gas and coal. This includes the State of California which is a fossil fuel producer and Colombia, a country with crude petroleum and coal briquettes as its top experts. Now Colombia is actively developing transition plans despite how central fossil fuels currently are to their economy. 

There is no room or time for the type of misinformation about climate change that Trump attempts to spread. If he should become President, there will need to be heightened international cooperation on the part of countries actively engaged in fossil fuel phase out conversations and planning to continue advancing progress towards a fully funded, fast and fair transition away from the three products killing us - oil, gas and coal.