FOSSIL FUEL TREATY THEORY OF CHANGE

Learn More About Our Theory of Change 
The Need to Address Fossil Fuel Demand AND Supply

With no limit on the expansion of the supply of fossil fuels, fossil fuel production continues to rise along with climate pollution. Governments around the world have plans to continue expansion to levels that would result in 120% more emissions than what’s needed to keep warming to 1.5C per the Paris Agreement. We need to use both sides of the scissors by cutting supply and demand. This means stopping expansion and managing a fast and fair global transition and phase out of fossil fuels.

Stopping fossil fuel expansion and winding down existing production is the main insurance available to avoid taking the world past manageable levels of warming. Currently supply and production reductions are simply not on scale with the level of threat with fossil fuel production at an all-time high.

An international agreement is needed to end the expansion of oil, gas and coal production, wind down existing production to manageable levels and ensure there is a coordinated, financially achievable and fair shift to clean energy and other low-carbon solutions. That’s where the Fossil Fuel Treaty comes in.

Levers of Change

The Fossil Fuel Treaty’s Theory of Change focuses on a coherent push on four connected levers that together can compel governments to act at the pace and scale the challenge demands. 

  • There are now more than 145 subnational and local governments, close to 100 parliamentarians, 101 Nobel Laureates, more than 4,000 civil society organizations representing a broad range of sectors from around the globe and over a million individuals calling for governments to negotiate a Fossil Fuel Treaty.

  • Put pressure on and enable governments and policy makers to take strong multilateral action to limit the supply of fossil fuels.  Without a shared commitment, countries are not compelled to phase down supply. Countries in the Global South are locked into fossil fuel without financial support.

    There are 18 nation states participating in diplomatic dialogues regarding the terms for a Fossil Fuel Treaty with 10 countries participating as observers at official meetings. These first mover countries are setting new norms and terms of the debate. They are also calling on other governments to be part of the negotiations.

  • Strengthen global governance by convening, supporting and promoting diplomates, policy makers and researchers to develop a framework. This framework will be equity-centred and work towards a wind down of fossil fuel production. The 18 first mover countries are now well positioned to lead the conversation and set new mechanisms for accountability and pathways to a just transition where no country or community is left behind. These countries are working collectively to establish the foundation for negotiating the terms of a Fossil Fuel Treaty. This is done via a series of diplomatic conferences.

  • Leverage knowledge and innovation generated by the Fossil Fuel Treaty. This includes research on debt relief to keep carbon in the ground, calls for action using momentum from the campaign to shift social norms, and creating a political space for decision makers to make change in their home countries.

The simple, yet compelling narrative of a Fossil Fuel Treaty allows for movement building across the social norms, equity centred framework and multilateral governance levers of change. It is a common call to action that enables civil society, government, Indigenous, frontline, science, health and other leaders to join together to overcome the entrenched influence of the fossil fuel industry. 

Learn more about our Theory of Change from the Founder of the Initiative, Tzeporah Berman