FOSSIL FUEL TREATY THEORY OF CHANGE

The Need to Address Fossil Fuel Demand AND Supply

For the past 30 years, global climate policy and international agreements have focused on constraining emissions by reducing demand for fossil fuels by increasing the price.  In fact, the Paris Climate Agreement which was critical in gaining agreement on the need to set a limit on emissions and have countries report on progress, does not mention oil, gas and coal.  The assumption was that the markets would constrain supply but that is just not happening. In part because of massive subsidies from governments that distort markets and allow fossil fuel production to rise.

With no limit on the expansion of the supply of fossil fuels, production continues to rise along with climate pollution. Governments around the world have plans to continue expansion to levels that would result in 120 percent more emissions than what’s needed to keep warming to 1.5C per the Paris Agreement. We need to use both sides of the scissors by cutting supply and demand. This means stopping expansion and managing a fast and fair global transition and phase out of fossil fuels.

Important efforts to reduce demand for fossil fuels and increase access to renewable, low-carbon energy. Stopping fossil fuel expansion and winding down existing production is the main insurance available to avoid locking in emissions that will take the world past manageable levels of warming yet efforts using the supply side of the equation are limited and fragmented. They are simply not on scale with the level of threat with fossil fuel production at an all-time high.

An international agreement is needed to end the expansion of oil, gas and coal production, wind down existing production to manageable levels and ensure there is a coordinated, financially achievable and fair shift to clean energy and other low-carbon solutions. That’s where the Fossil Fuel Treaty comes in.

Levers of Change

The Fossil Fuel Treaty’s Theory of Change focuses on a coherent push on four connected levers that together can compel governments to act at the pace and scale the challenge demands. 

  • There are now more than 135 subnational and local governments, close to 100 parliamentarians, 101 Nobel Laureates, more than 4,000 civil society organizations representing a broad range of sectors from around the globe and a million plus individuals calling for governments to negotiate a Fossil Fuel Treaty.

  • Sensitize, pressure and enable governments and policy makersto take strong multilateral action to constrain the supply of fossil fuels.  Without a shared commitment, countries are not compelled and will race to the last barrel while other countries in the Global South are locked into fossil fuel without financial support.

    There are 18 nation states participating in diplomatic dialogues regarding the terms for a Fossil Fuel Treaty with 10 countries participating as observers at official meetings. These first mover countries are setting new norms and terms of the debate and calling on other governments to be part of multilateral negotiations.

  • Strengthen global governance by convening, supporting and promoting diplomates, policy makers and researchers to develop and elevate concrete and equity-centred frameworks for a wind down of production. The 18 first mover countries are now well positioned to lead the conversation and set new mechanisms for accountability and pathways to a just transition where no country or community is left behind. They are working collectively to establish the foundation for negotiating the terms of a Fossil Fuel Treaty via a series of diplomatic conferences and to compel other nations to join them.

  • Leverage knowledge and innovation generated by the Fossil Fuel Treaty such as debt relief to keep carbon in the ground, to call for action using momentum from the campaign to shift social norms and create political space for decision makers to make change at home. These efforts now have examples of countries that have endorsed the treaty and are starting to shift domestic policy as a result.

The simple, yet compelling narrative of a Fossil Fuel Treaty allows for movement building across the social norms, equity centred framework and multilateral governance levers of change. It is a common call to action that enables civil society, government, Indigenous, frontline, science, health and other leaders to join together to overcome the entrenched influence of the fossil fuel industry. 

Learn more about our Theory of Change from the Founder of the Initiative, Tzeporah Berman