FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative is a global effort to foster international cooperation to accelerate a transition to renewable energy for everyone, end the expansion of oil, gas and coal, and wind down existing production in keeping with what science shows is needed to address the climate crisis.

The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative is building a movement for a fossil fuel phase out and fair energy transition which includes more than 2,000 civil society, research organizations, Nobel Laureates, health, youth, Indigenous and government leaders; by developing research to illuminate the threats of fossil fuel production and pathways away from oil, gas and coal to renewable energy and other low-carbon solutions in an equitable manner; and spur and support diplomatic engagements towards a formal Fossil Fuel Treaty.

There is a lack of international cooperation to address fossil fuels and a fair energy transition

For decades our governments have focused on international agreements and targets to reduce emissions but have not regulated the production of fossil fuels in line with climate goals. The result is we keep growing the problem and locking in future emissions. What we build today will decide the emissions of tomorrow.

It's not a transition if we are still growing the problem.

Unfortunately, there is very little international cooperation to advance a fair transition to renewable energy and phase out of fossil fuel production. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement don’t even include the words fossil fuels or oil, gas and coal.

A Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty is needed to complement these processes because, as reported by the United Nations Environment Programme, fossil fuel companies and our governments have plans to produce 110 percent more fossil fuels by 2030 than what is compatible with humanity being able to survive and manage the impacts of climate change.

We are currently spending billions of dollars to dig up more oil, gas and coal even though we already have more than enough to take the world past 2 degrees if we use it all.

Yet most countries and companies are still expanding production because they all want to be the last barrel sold.

A Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty will complement and help the world meet the goals of the Paris Agreement by providing the frameworks necessary to stop expansion globally and supporting countries to collaborate on an equitable wind down of production and fast track solutions.

Oil, gas, and coal are deadly

Fossil fuels are the greatest cause of premature death on the planet. 1 in 5 deaths worldwide are from air pollution due to fossil fuels. Oil, gas and coal are the primary cause of the climate emergency which is resulting in greater water and food scarcity, a dramatic rise in flooding, heatwaves and other extreme weather events that threaten lives and livelihoods.. These three products also fuel wars and threaten biodiversity. Applying the concept of non-proliferation to the climate emergency and the powerful analogy with international peace treaties can heighten attention on the need to stop the expansion of new fossil fuels and strengthen the case for a global treaty to phase out existing production of coal, oil and gas.

The science is clear that ending new exploration and expansion and phasing-out fossil fuel production is critical over the next decade to keep the world in line with global climate goals and to avoid catastrophic climate disruption. The current global health crisis caused by COVID-19, global energy price spikes and the war in Ukraine all underscore the urgency to act now, both to accelerate an equitable and peaceful transition for workers, communities and countries and to not exacerbate the impacts of climate change and fossil fuelled conflict on frontline communities.

The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty draws from past efforts to end the proliferation (spread) of global threats such as the Global Plastics Pollution Treaty, Mine Ban Treaty, Chemical Weapons Treaty and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Elements of success include:

• building a civil society movement to put pressure on governments

• increasing transparency around the nature of the problem and solutions

• establishing a group of first mover countries to lead diplomatic efforts

• and creating a foundation for treaty negotiations so that decision makers can come together to draft, agree upon and implement elements of a treaty.

Building the movement for a Fossil Fuel Treaty

The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative grew out of the Lofoten Declaration and Global Gas and Oil Network, which include multiple civil society and academic partners in the Global South and North. It was launched by a global Steering Committee and is supported by a network of more than 1,900 organisations with groups from every continent.

Over 3,000 scientists and academics, 101 Nobel laureates, the World Health Organisation and hundreds of health professionals, a thousands of religious institutions, a growing number of Indigenous organizations and youth activists, more than 80 cities and subnational governments and 550 Parliamentarians across the world have also called for a treaty to phase out fossil fuels and fast track a fair energy transition.

This growing network is being supported by the initiative’s International Support Team to run Fossil Fuel Treaty campaigns at the local, national and international levels.

Organizations and influencers can engage by endorsing the Fossil Fuel Treaty and launching campaigns.

Increasing transparency and accountability

As the global network builds, it is being underpinned by research and high-level expertise to inform dialogues and discussions around an international agreement.

Currently, there is not yet one unified, comprehensive, publicly accessible and government verified database that tracks fossil fuel reserves, resources and both historical and planned future production per the countries and the companies responsible for exploration and extraction. That’s why the Carbon Tracker Initiative and the Global Energy Monitor, with support from the Fossil Fuel Treaty, partnered to produce the Global Registry of Fossil Fuels, a publicly available database of current and planned production and related emissions. This prototype is highlighting the data gaps that exist and is laying the groundwork for a country owned and country-driven registry.

Establishing who is most responsible for current and future emissions is a critical underpin of international negotiations and can help ensure wealthier, more diversified countries with the greatest historical responsibility for climate pollution take the lead and ensure less developed countries have financial support.

The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative also developed the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Tracker which brings together fossil fuel phase out policies emerging around the world into a searchable database and is also building the evidence base for a phase out and fair energy transition through reports such as The Fossil Fueled Five and Fossil Fuel Exit Strategy.

A Group of first mover countries

Work is underway to establish a group of countries willing to call first for and lead the way to a Fossil Fuel Treaty. Vanuatu and Tuvalu are the first countries that have called for a treaty. They are now supported by a broader bloc of Pacific nations.

Consensus is not required to make progress. Vanuatu and Tuvalu are first mover countries already placing pressure on other nations to call for a phase out of fossil fuels. For example, they were joined by 78 other nations in calling for a phase out at COP27, which was the first time in the history of the UN climate talks that a wind down of oil, gas and coal was discussed. Climate leadership on the part of these nations is long standing. Vanuatu, for example, was one of the first countries in the world to call for action on climate change, has one of the world’s most ambitious climate action plans and has been on the forefront of the demand that led to an agreement on a Loss and Damage Fund to help vulnerable nations address climate impacts at COP27, and has also been leading when it comes to petitioning the International Court of Justice to support climate vulnerable nations.

Countries calling for a Fossil Fuel Treaty will lead the way in terms of determining the right forum for negotiating and elements of an agreement. They may choose to advance resolutions via United Nations processes; however, a majority of countries must agree to take action within the UNFCCC, which may limit the viability of that option. Instead, countries could choose to create a distinct forum as was the case for the land mines agreement.

A foundation for international negotiations

The Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative is engaging diplomats and parliamentarians around the world in discussions regarding the need for and pathway to a treaty including hosting a dialogue for decision makers in advance of the Stockholm +50 event in 2022. Now Vanuatu and Tuvalu are taking the lead in hosting diplomatic dialogues to engage other nations in determining the details of and vehicles for advancing a Fossil Fuel Treaty.

Work is also underway to develop a Global Commission on Fossil Fuels to expand and support government consultations which will inform formal diplomatic engagements towards a Fossil Fuel Treaty and regime. First mover countries may choose a stand alone process for negotiating the terms of a treaty or work through new multilateral bodies that have emerged to address fossil fuels such as the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance.

You can read more about the legal pathways towards a Fossil Fuel Treaty here.

What’s clear is that we don’t have time for business as usual. The Fossil Fuel Treaty provides a vehicle to expedite action to address the threat of oil, gas and coal production which has been missing.

The experience of treaty negotiation differs. While some have taken decades, the nuclear NPT took only three years. Pressure for a global treaty to address plastic began within UN processes in 2019 and in 2022, 175 countries adopted a resolution to begin negotiations for a Global Plastic Pollution Treaty. As important as achieving a treaty is in itself, the call for one drives a number of important steps that scale down production. At the local level it provides a focus for action akin to nuclear-free zone cities with local governments putting pressure on higher levels of government to act while taking steps to phase out fossil fuels and move to renewable energy at the same time. At the national level it’s a vehicle to engage governments in a discussion about supply side measures. At the international level it provides context for a club of first movers who are starting to push the discussion into UN processes.

The journey matters. The process of calling and campaigning for and negotiating towards a treaty can pressure jurisdictions at all levels to take action to phase out fossil fuels. Additionally, other civil society led efforts have resulted in treaties such as around landmines and nuclear weapons and have not relied on existing institutional bodies or processing to advance progress.

Major fossil fuel producers are unlikely to join a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, at least in the medium term nor is a “universal treaty” like the UNFCCC expected. Rather, a group of “first mover” countries are already starting to work together to elevate the issue and pressure other nations to take action.

One model is the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, a treaty led by non-nuclear-armed states to stigmatise and ban nuclear weapons. It seeks to change global norms on nuclear weapons and prohibit producing, manufacturing, acquiring, possessing or stockpiling nuclear weapons. In developing the treaty there are many lessons to learn from other treaties on nuclear and chemical weapons, landmines, cluster munitions, ozone depleting substances etc. View a briefing analysing lessons from other Treaties to inform a legal pathway towards a Fossil Fuel Treaty here.

What’s clear is that we don’t have time for business as usual. The International Energy Agency determined that there needs to be a decline of fossil fuel use from four-fifths of the world's energy supply today to one-fifth by 2050. The fossil fuels that remain will be embedded in some products such as plastics and in processes where emissions are scarce.

The Fossil Fuel Treaty provides the missing vehicle to expedite the shift to renewable energy and other low carbon solutions along the necessary timeline. The experience of treaty negotiation differs. While some have taken decades, the nuclear NPT took only three years. Pressure for a global treaty to address plastic began within UN processes in 2019 and in 2022, 175 countries adopted a resolution to begin negotiations for a Global Plastic Pollution Treaty. As important as achieving a treaty is in itself, the call for one drives a number of important steps that scale down production. At the local level it provides a focus for action akin to nuclear-free zone cities with local governments putting pressure on higher levels of government to act while taking steps to phase out fossil fuels and move to renewable energy at the same time. At the national level it’s a vehicle to engage governments in a discussion about supply side measures. At the international level it provides context for a club of first movers who are starting to push the discussion into UN processes.

The journey matters. The process of calling and campaigning for and negotiating towards a treaty can pressure jurisdictions at all levels to take action to phase out fossil fuels. Additionally, other civil society led efforts have resulted in treaties such as around landmines and nuclear weapons and have not relied on existing institutional bodies or processing to advance progress.

Countries that currently produce fossil fuel but that have made public commitments to phase out fossil fuels and plan for a just transition are welcome to endorse the call for a Fossil Fuel Treaty. Some nations are not in an economic position to end their fossil fuel production without greater international cooperation, this is the very reason for why we need a Fossil Fuel Treaty. The President of Timor-Leste, José Ramos-Horta has made this clear in his call for a Fossil Fuel Treaty despite his nation’s dependence on oil and gas revenues.

Formal treaty negotiations will be led by the first countries that endorse the call, and this will include setting the terms of the negotiations and drafting the treaty text. This process will determine the rules for engagement by fossil fuel producing countries.

Wealthy, fossil fuel producing countries such as Canada, the United States, UK, Norway and Australia are responsible for most climate pollution to date and have the greatest capacity to move away from oil, gas and coal to renewable energy and support other countries to be part of the transition as well. This is critical because countries in the Global South are least responsible, are most impacted by climate change and face greater constraints moving to renewable energy and other low-carbon solutions. Countries such as Nigeria and Ecuador, for example, are drilling for oil to pay development debts acquired from Northern wealthy countries.

The Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative emphasizes the need for a global, fair energy transition as a core pillar of a treaty agreement in addition to stopping the expansion of fossil fuels and winding down production to limit warming to 1.5ºC.

Initiative partners in the Global South are leading the call for an equitable shift away from oil, gas and coal while also pushing back on efforts to expand production in places like Africa, where gas would be exported to Europe, rather than meeting the energy needs of more than 600 million people who currently lack access.

A Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty could be designed to facilitate a fair, global energy transition. Elements could include obligations to end expansion and phase out existing production based on equity, provisions relating to transparency and compliance, international support such as establishing a Global Just Transition Fund and a plan for wealthy countries to contribute to it by providing debt relief, capacity building support for the Global South and technology transfers as well as considering how these actions interact with trade agreements and laws.

Learn more about “Equity, Climate Justice, and Fossil Fuel Extraction: Principles for a Managed Phase Out” here, and how a Fossil Fuel Treaty can facilitate a fair energy transition in this briefing note.

No. There is already enough oil, gas and coal in production to meet needs as the world moves to renewable energy. Additionally, there is enough renewable energy potential in every region of the globe to ensure energy access for everyone and spur economic progress including in the Global South. Access the report “Fossil Fuel Exit Strategy: An orderly wind down of coal, oil and gas to meet the Paris Agreement” here.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that oil demand will begin to decline after 2025 regardless of any new climate commitments made. Despite this, fossil fuel companies have plans to expand production to levels. This would result in 110 percent more emissions than what a safe climate demands.

This fact and the other deadly costs associated with oil, gas and coal are obscured by industry led PR campaigns. Meanwhile, fossil fuel air pollution is responsible for one in four deaths annually. Communities on the frontlines of fossil fuel production bear the brunt of air and water pollution, in addition to human and traditional rights abuses. As the war in Ukraine illustrates, fossil fuels and conflict go hand in hand.

Meanwhile, the fossil fuel industry rakes in profits and more than one trillion in taxpayer subsidies annually. Money that should be going to support human health and well-being and the shift away from the three products driving these crises.